9. Jeremiah - There's not much to say about him except for his glaring lack of edit. He hasn't really had any storyline all game except for a few comments about how shady he is. There isn't a chance in hell he will win and I'd put any amount of money on that. I expect him to get voted out in the near future.
8. LJ - I have a feeling no one will agree with me here but look. LJ had a very strong premerge edit, and once merge hit he fell off the face of the earth. This could have been to draw viewers in at first since he's likable and will probably make F6 but having no story at this point is a sign he doesn't win. He's falling into Jeremiah territory in terms of his edit, but that's not to say he won't be brought back in a future season.
7. Tasha - Very credible before tribe swap as she was always seen as the one who wanted to strategize and practice for competitions, but she hasn't really done much thus far except piss Kass off and lose her as a vote. Plus Tasha really dislikes Kass on twitter so that has to be a sign that Tasha gets out before Kass and is bitter about it. I just don't see her winning.
6. Woo - He had a strong episode but it was only due to the fact that he stole the clue from Spencer. If anyone else had done that they would have had the same amount of confessionals that Woo had. Granted Woo was publicized in commercials preseason so you can never count him out, he has the lowest number of confessionals other than Jeremiah which seems very unlikely should he be the winner.
5. Kass - Her, Tony, and Spencer are the only three to have a confessional every episode which is usually an important characteristic of a winner. Usually, the people who flip at merge like Cochran did are not given a positive spin on their edit. Kass however, has all of her confessionals portrayed in a logical manner none of them making her look particularly bad. Sure she looks a bit villainous but she has a method to her madness. The Twitter hate will be cause for concern as she has terrible jury management. Tony, Trish, Spencer, and Tasha hate her the most on Twitter. Sarah and Morgan wont be voting for her. There is no way she will ever have the jury votes to win but she's had a particularly good edit despite that.
4. Spencer - To me, he has the fan favorite edit. To others, he has a winning edit. I think comparing his visibility to Malcolm's is key here. Spencer has a lot of confessionals because he's a good narrator. That doesn't mean he wins. He's another one that's very pissed off at Kass on Twitter, and I think that will have something to do with Kass fucking him over at some point.
3. Jefra - She could be the unlikely winner if she's sitting next to people like Tony or Kass in the end, provided the jury is bitter. If there is a bitter jury I could definitely see Jefra winning considering she's hasn't had horrible visibility prior to this episode. Probst liked Jefra too so she could stand a chance I guess as a weird low key winner if the story is about why someone else in the F3/2 lost.
2. Tony - This could be very different after next episode. I know in the preview they showed Tony getting paranoid and it could get the best of him. Tony has had a lot of his mistakes pointed out along the way which usually signifies a story of why someone will lose. However all that put aside, he always comes out of these situations fine and manages to keep himself in a safe position. If he has this over the top Boston Rob type edit where he's so obvious that it's misleading, he could win.
1. Trish - She's moved down in confidence for me, though I think she still stands a decent shot. Her edit just isn't there the way you would think it would be if she won though. Compared to everyone else though she hasn't had any mistakes pointed out so there's also the logic for why she would win and not be the focus of the season. She came out of "bullying" Lindsey fine without a villainous edit, she has random comments in the episodes all the time, and she got the credit for the Kass flip. The real question is whether or not she's too big of a character to win. I think she could definitely have the jury votes if she goes into a FTC with people like Kass and Jefra.
