Are we talking about the same Natalie who was nearly invisible until the fourth episode into the merge?
Becoming a character at the end of a season is better connected to 4th/5th than someone who's been visible the entire season. Unless there's more than one person with high visibility levels lol
But in the Kelley elimination episode he had the "I'm going to take a nap" right when they got back from the challenge. And he constantly states that he's not smart. His loved one (Wes) got a bad edit with the farts and not being nice to the girls (the episode Josh left). Plus Natalie got the "I'm doing this for my sister"- crying edit last episode, like Tyson got close to the end in BvW 1, when talking about Rachel.
But I agree, either Nat or Keith are winning. Hopefully it'll be Nat.
Like Aqua said, Keith has the classic 4th place edit that goes to the likeable underdog fan favorite. If he wins, it wouldn't anger me too much, since I do like him. But Natalie simply deserves it at this point, and she has never been invisible. She's had a line in every episode, and it's usually an important one to show she's in control and she knows what she's doing. You need to watch a bit harder, I think.