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Big Brother and online Hunger games.

Survivor Drafe

Jan 19, 2014 by manalord
Survivor Japan:
https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQR7ZaYd8JeGJaNMISPbbxNQV49vTeYxaR3LqnwbGJevjaUtInAxQ

Japan is a location that Is in Asia that is known for deadly beasts, harsh temperates, and a divide between the genders. With all that in mine we have a season of Men vs Woman.

Fujinomiya(Pink Buffs)
One of the Paths of a Japanese Mountain Range using a typical more 'girly' color to represent them. Here are you Women!
CIERA (BvW)
CHRISTINA CHA (OW)
JERRI( AO/AS/HvV)
SHERRI( Cara)
LAURA A(Cara)
DANIELLE DI( EI/HvV)
Kourtney (OW)
Serria (Toca) 

Gotemba(Brown Buffs)
Another Japanese Mountain Range. Brown is a much more rough color and thus fits the men much better.
CHRIS(Vani)
BRETT(Samoa)
FROSTI( China) 
JEFF(Phillip)
JAY(OW) 
ZANE(Phillip)
Eddie (Cara)
Benry (Nicagura)

Season Format:
16 players competing to be the sole survivor!
Jury of 8
Final 3

Twist:
A spin off of Redemption Island comes in this time. The Samurai culture always strikes hard so once three people are voted out a difficult challenge will begin. The winner chooses who leaves this 'side part of the game'. This will last until 8 people are left in the main game where the winner of the last challenge will bring someone back into the game with them, the two tribes merge and the game resets.

Swap:
There will be a swap at the final 12 where everyone will choose an Egg from one basket of 12. 6 have Pink paint in it and 6 have brown, that will be there new tribes.

Idols:
One Idol per tribe camp.

Merge buff color (Purple)

Schedule:
Reward Challenge #1( Flint)- Day 1
Immunity #1- Day 2
Tribal #1- Day 2
Reward #2(Tarp)- Day 4
Immunity #2- Day 5
Tribal #2- Day 5
Reward #3(Fishing Gear)- Day 6
Immunity #3- Day 7
Tribal #3- Day 7
Samurai Island Challenge #1- Day 9
Samurai Island Tribal #1- Day 9( 15 Remain)
Immunity/Reward #4 ( Comfort Items)- Day 10
Tribal #4- Day 10
Samurai Island Challenge #2- Day 11
Samurai Tribal #2- Day 11 (14 Remain)
Immunity/Reward #5( Trip to local mountains/Sushi feast)- Day 13(Tribe Swap)
Tribal #5- Day 13
Samurai Island Challenge #3- Day 14
Samurai Tribal #3- Day 14 (13 Remain)
Immunity/Reward #6 (Choice of coffee/sugar/pastries or Rice/Beans/additional Fishing gear)- Day 16
Tribal #6- Day 16
Samurai Island Challenge #4- Day 17
Samurai Island Tribal #4- Day 17(12 Remain)
Immunity/Reward #7( Movie Night)-  Day 19
Tribal #7- Day 19
Samurai Island  Challenge #5 Day 20
Samurai Island Tribal #5- Day 20 (11 Remain)
Immunity Challenge #8- Day 22
Tribal #8- Day 22
Final SI Challenge- Day 23
Final SI Tribal- Day 23(10 Remain) (Jury Begins with this person)
**************Merge***************
Reward Challenge #8- Day 24 (trip on a boat/ Food provided)
Individual Immunity #1- Day 25
Tribal #9- Day 25 (9 Remain)
Reward Challenge #9- Day 27 (Culture Trip)
Individual Immunity #2- Day 38
Tribal #10- Day 28 (8 Remain)
Reward Challenge #10- Day 30 (Survivor Auction)
Individual Immunity #3- Day 31
Tribal #11- Day 31 (7 Remain)
Reward #11/Individual Immunity #4- Day 32 (Wings and Pizza with 2 people of choice)
Tribal #12- Day 32 (6 Remain)
Family Visit(Reward #12)- Day 33 (trip to a hot spring with 2 pairs of your choice)
Individual Immunity #5- Day 34
Tribal #13- Day 34 (5 Remain)
Reward #13/Individual Immunity #6- Day 36 (Served at camp with person of your choice)
Tribal #14- Day 36 (4 people remain)
Final Individual Immunity- Day 38
Tribal #15- Day 38
Final Tribal Council- Day 39

Cast Assessment: Going by Tribes :P

Gotemba Tribe:

Eddie Fox
Previous Experience: Season 26, 4th Place
http://ia.media-imdb.com/images/M/MV5BMTY5MDg0MTMyN15BMl5BanBnXkFtZTcwMDU5ODkyOQ%40%40._V1_SX640_SY720_.jpg

Eddie is known for the person who has voted in the MINORITY the most times at tribal council and was part of a decimated alliance known as the three amigos. I think if he took what he learned from people like Cochran, Brenda, Andrea and Malcom from his first season and was aware of what was going on, kept everyone liking him and just really made everyone laugh and smile but knew that he had to play hard to even stay for a tribal or two he could do well. However...

I think that starting on this tribe of Men, Eddie just will not play the game hard, partly because his game is based slightly off using bigger targets( which I don't think there are many) and flirting to get by. Thus will for sure be an early boot. He has the social game to be liked but I don't think he will learn from his mistakes and he is one of the weakest alpha-males challenge wise. Overall I think he could evade a dead last position by winning a challenge or two after being voted out but I don't see him making merge because people will not let a likeable but rather tame physical male get that far, epically one without a strategic game.

Eddie's biggest threat is his own mouth. No one is going to want to work with a dumb-ass on a season like this especially a guy who thinks with his downstairs and again this makes Eddie a liability to the tribe and Men as a whole. His ONLY way to get far is to somehow pray the guys wins enough challenges to make it to the swap and have a girl drag his ass to a far slot in the game.

Odds of Winning( On a scale of 0-5)- 0(None)
Predicted Placement: 18th-11th

Chris Daughtry
Previous Experience: Season 9, Winner

https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTYZN-EDOkASj86UqNg59o4cN9Nlwm4AQSLLNHbq2RNYoe8rxN6

Chris is the only winner on this season and is known for finding back doors in which to worm his way higher up on the totem pole. He is also known as a master of BS and thus I think that he will be an instant target. He has proven to be a solid strategist and decent at non balance challenges and thus I really think Chris has a lot to bring to the table and learned a lot his first time so overall I think he is coming into this game the 2nd most prepared, after Jerri.

He and Zane are the only two completely unfit males on the entire tribe however I can easily see a divide Forming between Zane/Chris/Jeff/Frosti and the other 4 more mactor like guys. Because of Chris's social  game he could easily flip a snakey guy like Benry, or a honest 'farm boy' like Jay and easily take out the Brett and Eddie of this season. The only issue here is being in the minority without a back-door  solution. However if anyone can win in a season so similar to his first season.. well that would obviously be Chris.

Chris's biggest threats in this game are most likely Brett, Jerri and Ceria. Brett played with many amazing players and if he combines his natuarl likeabiltiy with a gameplay of Natalie White, Brett can easily take over Chris and control the game without ever needing to make a decision. Ceria and Jerri's balls to the wall ness however could also be the death of Chris who is very a plant seeds and wait kind of player and people who are always willing to shake up the game could very well destroy his.

Odds of Winning( On a scale of 0-5)- 4(Very Good)
Predicted Placement: 7th- Winner

Brett Clouser
Previous Experience: Season 19, 4th Place
https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSvjgmLrFrwIFYzN-e1UUZIGcn4cSa7CeqXXJGfhZVbHjAU6Pzu

Brett is a beast of a challenge competitor and is known for being the last Gaulu standing during Samoa. He can win challenges and legit everyone loves the guy. His social and Physical game make him one of the biggest threats in this season and he will easily be able to fit into any alliance. Rumor has it that him and Russell Swan where the bridges that where connecting everyone and then without one it became impossible to control. I think that Brett will learn to make sure he can trust everyone and is the kind of person who can stab you in the back and you will just laugh it off.

Brett coming in could go either way. He could be stuck with Eddie in the minority, but his overall challenge  Strength might be too valuable for them to give up. If he plays the game right Brett could litterly end up ANYWHERE in the placments and its 100% up to how the divide between the Mactors and non Mactors goes.

Brett's Biggest threat in this game is the girls. The Girls can play his game much better as they don't have that challenge beast part putting a target on there back and I don't think Brett can down play it enough to not be a target. Overall I think Brett can overcome the odds and do well but we shall see.

Odds of Winning( On a scale of 0-5)- 3(Depends on Circumstance)
Predicted Placement: 18th- Winner

Frosti Zernow
Previous Experince : Season 15, 8th Place
https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQNl6b_mUyDWBb8uhxFXFowsczhEKSzYe-ng6xuR6DDtf0SgG9yJw

Frosti like Eddie has no chance of winning this game. He is not well rounded enough to make an Immunity run and his social skills are not the best. He is know for well being weird and frosti and there is really nothing special about him other then being a very good character to support the season.

Frosti is going to be out as soon as people get around to him. I could see him being taken to the end as a goat, but I don't think unless Forsti has a little Todd inside him that he has the skills need to win this game.

Frosti does not really have a biggest threat. In all honesty he just can't win the game.

Odds of Winning( On a scale of 0-5)- -1(Never going to happen)
Predicted Placement: 18-12

JEFF KENT
Previous Experince: Season 25, 10th place
http://www.etonline.com/media/photo/2012/11/23972379/jeff_kent_survivor_121108_360.jpg

Jeff is most known for being funny. He is a funny guy however on this season I think he is doomed due to a much older cast who will recognize him. Jeff can win challenges and be social but In all honesty he can not adapt his game to anyone who did well on his season and thus I really think that Jeff is going into this game the most blind and is the least prepared for this experience.

Well the girls will target hm first in the swap. I do not think that Jeff will make it through the island once the girls take him out post-swap and he is doomed to lose this season. I think he can be in  a good spot if numbers roll his way but he will be taken out for being a threat eventually. If the guys have the numbers late post-swap I can even see them ditching him.. Overall I just don't see Jeff overcoming the odds this season.

Jeff's biggest threat in this game is the egos of others and not being younger then 30. Jeff is too intimidating to most of the guys egos and is not a controllable young guy to flirt with so the girls don't want him around either... so the only allies he can make are Chris and Zane and that will get him to the swap but beyond that who knows.

Odds of Winning( On a scale of 0-5)- 1(Miracle of overcoming odds/Immunity Run)
Predicted Placement: 12-10

Jay Byars
Previous Experince: Season 24, 10th Place
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSQtX2nLydLYfeJ5HgBPL16RAS1RQoXwFt3trete3zEyzBqsqYB

Jay is most known for... being the best blindside of one world to some people apparently... I don't think so but okay. I think he is more known for being too trusting and slightly aware of the game but clearly stopped caring come the merge. Overall I think that Jay has all the tools to win this game and can EASILY Kim this entire season. Jay is also great friends with Colton and if he can combine his own social and physical skills with Kim's control and spice in some Colton style choas Jay WILL make it to the end of this game.

Jay will never be a target in this game until toward the end. He is pretty much either going to make it to the end or be very close. Jay is just not seen as a threat because he can be a little blunt and that makes him not too likeable, hes not amazing at challenges and he can play stupid all of which makes people look over him but still like him. The reason I think he is better then Eddie is because he can actually play the game and people will trust Jay if he gives them his word.

Jay's biggest threats in this game are Chris and Christina. I think Christina can better play Kim's control game and will be able to call Jay out and make people doubt him if hes not careful and Chris is someone who might be able to use Jay as a puppet and do all his dirt work for him and then cut him at the end.

Odds of Winning: 5( I personally think Jay has the best shot out of all of the guys)
Predicted Placement: Final 3

Zane Knight
Previous Experince: Season 25, 18
http://truedorktimes.com/s25/images/e1/e1tv179.jpg

Zane is some what of a wild card. I think he has the Strategic tools to do well in this game, but I think he is an outcast socialy and physically will not be able to preform.  I think unless he calls up his buddies from his season and ask for tips the dude is going to be a post-swap burn unless Chris is there to protect him.

Zane is going to be Chris's goat. He has not other moves and is literately going to have to ride Chris to the end and try to take him out during the last few rounds. Can he do it,  most likely he will be out before he has the chance or he will already be on the jury with Chris.

Zane's biggest threat coming into this game is the Mactor 4. Those guys can jump ship to the woman WAY easier then Zane could in a minority situation and Zane's only hope is a tight Male Majority merge. 

Odds of Winning: 1( Unlikely)
Predicted Placment: 12-10

Ben 'Benry' Henry
Previous Experince: Season 21, 7
http://survivordean.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/benry.jpg

Benry is a snakey player. He knows how to be a snake and that is simply how he knows ho to play. He may try to combine a Chase/Faibo like game and be likeable but ready to flip at any time.
Overall this makes him untrustworthy and doomed. Benry is like Frosti and Eddie in that I CANNOT see them pulling of the win. Benry could win his way back into the game but hell be out eventually. Even if he makes it to the end he just isn't likeable enough to win, even in a lesser of 3 evils final 3. Unless he comes into this game as a completely new man Benry has no shot at winning this.

Benry's biggest threat... is his own personality. He is a bit of a dick and people on his season where not the fondest of him all the time. He can rub people the wrong way and it is for that reason and that reason only that I think that Benry has no chance to win this season as I do not forsee him keeping a facade going long enough to get to the end.

Odds of winning: 0 (None)
Predicted Placment: 18-11

So the guys have a few that I could see doing well. If we are looking at an even 5-5 from each orginal tribe I would predict that Brett, Jay, Zane, Chris will for sure be there but the last one is up in the air. If I had to make the executive call now however Id put my money on one it would HAVE to be Benry..

However know is time to start off with the Women of this season.

Ciera Eastin
Previous Experience: Season 27, 5
https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRNPSdur4hacPBZ2fGyg4bz2R8-_5rKx0rUKc0dyeqJY3J6lWuLDg

ah Ciera most known for being... Balls to the wall super star. She flips and flops and she makes people draw rocks. This woman is a lynch pin of any season and really knows the game. Know that she lost she can even further play the game and I think that her only issue is her physical strength.

Ciera is going to be a tough cookie to beat in this game. She knows how to play the game and people will fall for he spell and then self implode. She can lead the younger girls together or cause complete choas. She is not the weakest on her tribe and there are shields in front of her no matter if the tribe wants to take out threats or liabilties and Ciera I would be shocked to see voted out early pre-merge. Once the swap comes she might be in danger but during those rounds she will be kept on SI for the sole fact of 'I can beat her'. If she can bulid trust with the last 2 people on, she either wins or is taken back into the game where she can dominate once again.  She is almost for sure going to be a late boot however. She is too dangerous to get to the end, but maybe she will be able to downplay that target.

Ciera's biggest weakness his her  lack of challenge abillity. That can hurt her if she gets voted out pre-merge and could be the ending of her game as it will be a long way to the merge.

Odds of winning: 2 (Needs very great late game circumstances, and some early game luck)
Predicted Placement: 13-5

Christina Cha-Cha
Previous Experince: Season 24, 4
https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQY_ZWjAjd7cfEQ72VPnZBlYVNj6I7O6k7ZWN1HxYLE50E7tJiBuw

The Cha-Cha came out guns blazing but then... disappeared for most of the game only coming back for short stints. I think Christina has game but her season just did not let it come out otherwise she would be doomed. She knows the game, she can play the game, and I think she is in a much better situation this time. She can for sure have women who will click with her better this time around and she will most likely be a very useful member of the tribe during the game. Christina like Jay has the excellence of Kim and that is her biggest asset.

Christina gameplay wise I think is untouchable until the swap. Even then she is perfect as most of the guys are guys she will click with. In all honesty I cannot under any universe see Christina go early unless the guys merge with #s and pagong which I CANNOT see happening ( although I could easily see the other happening easily). If Christina can make it look like she is playing hard she will win this game. I think her and Jay will actually get along marvelous as they didn't hate each other in there season and could run the game together Kim and Chelsea style.

Christina's biggest threat is going to be her mouth and her confidence, coupled with unpredictability of a few wild cards. Christina if she folds to early again thinking that being strong will net her a boot she will be dragged to the near-end as a goat and then be too much of a underdog to risk being in finals similar to One-World. Christina needs to not make herself so much of an underdog and just keep herself UTR/MOTR and she will do just fine.

Odds of winning: 4( Her somewhat annoying nature is her only issue)
Predicted Placement: Final 3

Jerri Manthey
Previous Experince: Seasons 2,8, and 20: 8,10,4

http://images4.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20121208161848/survivor/images/f/f4/Jerri-manthey-profile.jpg

Jerri is one of the few people on this season that I think is really funny that actually has some chance of making it deep into the game. I think Jerri knows the most about this game as it will be her 4th time playing and just really knows more about the game then anyone else just from seeing it all so to speak. Do I think she can win. NOT AT ALL. Will she make it deep and bring some kick ass hilarity to the game... HELL YEA!

Jerri is going to be used pre-merge and then come into her own during the merge. She is not and cannot be controlled but she can be influenced and that is the key. People need to make Jerri think she is making the decision herself otherwise if they try to force her hand they will have issues. There is not really a Russell for her to use as a goat and have to appease so I really don't see her just doing what she is told but I think if she can make the swap she will make it to the final 5. Everyone will get along with her and no one will ever get rid of her until its like, OPPSIE the jury loves her lets get rid of her. Jerri cannot reliably win challenges which I think will be her ultimate downfall.

Jerri's biggest threat is her likeabiltiy. Unlike in Austrilia and even All-Stars she was loved by the HvV cast and I cant see that changing. As she grew older and got wiser to the game she really has become a shinning light and wonderful player who everyone wants to be around and that will make sure she makes it deep into the game. If she can downplay it enough, something I think she cannot do, then she could sit at the end and if she is at the end of the game she WILL win, no questions asked.

Odds of winning: 1 ( Needs to get REALLY lucky)
Predicted Placment: 6-4

Sherri Biethman
Previous Experince: Season 26, 3

http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130427040109/survivor/images/b/b0/05-Sherri-Biethman-Is-Willing-To-Sleep-With-Jeff-Probst-For-A-PIzza-Survivor-Caramoan_04.jpg

Sherri is someone who plays a very group game winner strategy.  Strong until they lose power/if ever and then sits under the radar and makes conscious decisions when they have to. I think she was locked into a position she could not win and thus tried to help the people she liked the most win. She has the tools to win this game, but her game play is just not respected enough outside of our community that realizes that powers of pulling off a UTR control game.

Sherri is pretty much destined to lose this season. She will be a post-swap victim and then taken out on SI as no one will want to bring her back into the game as then she will be goat bait. She has no hope of winning this game unless circumstances allow her to go to very few tribal pre-merge which would guarantee that she is the finals goat again or a very late boot to keep a better goat.

Sherri's biggest threat in this game is.. similar to Frosti no one. She can't win so she really does not have a threat.

Odds of winning: -1 ( Can't see it happening)
Predicted Placment: 18-11

Laura Alexander
Previous Experince: Season 26, 16

http://media-social.s-msn.com/images/blogs/00250065-0000-0000-0000-000000000000_00000065-06d2-0000-0000-000000000000_20130307210420_laura-S26.png

L:aura is one of the best strategists to get an early boot. She is fun and I think she might have learned to.. I don't know be more in shape for this season, its really her only issue.

Laura coming into this game is... a huge question mark. It really depends on how well she can manipulate people when she gets voted out for being a liability. I can see a few scenarios where she makes it to that point where she does not get voted out pre-merge but not many. She and Ceria will most likely be the person taken INTO the game be someone else however unlike Ceria Laura can play it better and I think Laura will have a great shot at winning.

Laura's biggest threat is others seeing how much of a threat she is. If people look at her like oh she was out early she is not a threat.. then well she is golden otherwise she is pretty much going to have an uphill battle.

Odds of winning: 4( Can easily see it)
Predicted Placement: 11th-1

Danielle Dilorenzo
Previous Experince: 12/20: 2,7
http://www2.pictures.gi.zimbio.com/Danielle%2BDiLorenzo%2BCBS%2BUpfront%2BPresentation%2B2__Xb98Ml5Wl.jpg

Danielle is by far the strongest physical women. She is loud abrasive and very blunt. Coming into this game she might have learned some pacing and charm from Parvarti, and some power of bullshit from Sandra in order to improve on her gameplay.

Danielle is either doomed for being the only physical threat female or the savior of the tribe. I think she will be the leader and thus wind up being one of the last boots if the merge is female controlled and one of the first if it is male controlled. If it is a mix I think Danielle could make it to the end but her abrasiveness dooms he to not win unless in a lesser of 3 evils situation.

Danielle's biggest threat in this game is Jerri. Jerri has more experience then her and is the only other candidate to really take control of the women and if Dani cannot be the leader she is doomed to be out very early.

Odds of Winning: .5 ( Very VERY much luck is needed)
Predicted Place: 10-2

Kourtney Moon
Previous Experince: Season 24, 18

http://img2-2.timeinc.net/people/i/2012/news/120227/kourtney-moon-300.jpg

Kourtney is coming into this season with legit no experince. She is obsecure and is thus doomed to be Franny 2.0 and first boot fodder.

Kourtney's quirkness can save her however. I think if she can play it right her tribe will fall in love with her. I think as long as she's in the game( and I doubt it will be long) she will keep the audience entertianed and she will be happy with however she does as long as she does not break her own arm again...

Kourtney's biggest threat is people wanting to be assholes and make a 2nd franny. Really  I think she can have some longevity in this game but I dont see her making it to the end game.

Odds of winning: 1( I can actully think of once scenerio where it works)
Predicted Placment: 18-9

Sierra Reed
Previous Experince: Season 18, 7

http://static3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20120617034143/survivor/images/thumb/6/61/S18_Sierra_Reed.jpg/250px-S18_Sierra_Reed.jpg

Sierra is rather annoying. Flat out she can annoy people however she played with a solid strategist in Stephan and a solid social gamer in JT and if she can play those parts well enough I think we can see Serria really shine in this game despite her annoyingness.

However, I think she is doomed to be the first boot of the females, baring a sick joke on Kourtneys part. She is a model which is always finicky on a tribe of females, and with these females this girl is legit fucked. The younger girls have the numbers even without her and thus she is expendable and that is horrible to be.

Serria is destined to lose this season. She is for sure not going to make the merge because she is just too expendable in the game and that last thing you want to be in this game is expendable. She can turn it around but I don't think Serria is a good enough player.

Odds of winning- Negaititve Infinty
Predicted Placment: 18-12

The girls are great postion wise. I think they are a much more stable group which makes it harder to predict what goes down on ther side. If we are looking at an even merge however I think the 5 girls that will be there might be Ceira, Laura, Jerri, Danni and Christina.

So overall this season has tons of potenital to be a great season although part of it is in the editing and how it goes down.

Comments

manalord Fantastic write-up. Love the guys vs. girls tribe set-up. Gotta say I questioned your draft choices but you sold me on your season so congrats on that. Doesn't mean I think it's definitely the best but it's at least in consideration now for me.
Sent by yankeeman311,Jan 20, 2014

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