Nicole has won the PoV, so let's just assume target Victor is evicted. Fast forward to the final four. Let's break down all of the possible outcomes.
1.1 James' HoH; James' PoV
James noms Nicole and Corey
James doesn't use the PoV
Paul evicts Nicole
1.2 James' HoH; Corey's PoV
James noms Nicole and Corey
Corey vetoes himself, Paul goes up as a replacement
Corey evicts Paul
1.3 James' HoH; Nicole's PoV
James noms Nicole and Corey
Nicole vetoes herself, Paul goes up as a replacement
Nicole evicts Paul
1.4 James' HoH; Paul's PoV
James noms Nicole and Corey
Paul doesn't use the veto
Paul evicts Nicole
2.1 Nicole's HoH; Nicole's PoV
Nicole noms James and Paul
Nicole doesn't use the veto
Corey evicts Paul
2.2 Nicole's HoH; Corey's PoV
Nicole noms James and Paul
Corey doesn't use the veto
Corey evicts Paul
2.3 Nicole's HoH; James' PoV
Nicole noms James and Paul
James wins veto and pulls himself off; Corey is the replacement
James evicts Paul
2.4 Nicole's HoH; Paul's PoV
Nicole noms James and Paul
Paul pulls himself off; Corey is the replacement
Paul evicts Corey
3.1 Paul's HoH; Paul's PoV
Paul noms Nicole and Corey
Paul vetoes no one
James evicts Nicole
3.2 Paul's HoH; Corey's PoV
Paul noms Nicole and Corey
Corey vetoes himself; James is put up as the replacement
Corey evicts James
3.3 Paul's HoH; James' PoV
Paul noms Nicole and Corey
James vetoes no one
James evicts Nicole
3.4 Paul's HoH; Nicole's PoV
Paul noms Nicole and Corey
Nicole vetoes herself; James goes up as the replacement
Nicole evicts James
So, percentage wise (and obviously this is off because not every HG has the same amount of competition prowess)
Corey has an 8% chance of going home
James has a 17% chance of going home
Nicole has a 33% chance of going home
Paul has a 42% chance of going home
Final 3 Scenarios
1.1 Corey/James/Nicole; Corey wins
Corey evicts James
1.2 Corey/James/Nicole; James wins
James evicts Nicole
1.3 Corey/James/Nicole; Nicole wins
Nicole evicts James
2.1 James/Nicole/Paul; James wins
James evicts Paul
2.2 James/Nicole/Paul; Nicole wins
Nicole evicts Paul
2.3 James/Nicole/Paul; Paul wins
Paul evicts Nicole
3.1 Nicole/Paul/Corey; Nicole wins
Nicole evicts Paul
3.2 Nicole/Paul/Corey; Paul wins
Paul evicts Nicole
3.3 Nicole/Paul/Corey; Corey wins
Corey evicts Paul
4.1 Paul/Corey/James; Paul wins
Paul evicts James
4.2 Paul/Corey/James; Corey wins
Corey evicts Paul
4.3 Paul/Corey/James; James wins
James evicts Paul
So, out of all 12 possible outcomes:
If Corey makes it to the final 3 he has a 0% chance of being evicted
If James makes it to the final 3 he has a 25% chance of being evicted
If Nicole makes it to the final 3 she has a 25% chance of being evicted
If Paul makes it to the final 3 he has a 50% chance of being evicted
Final 2 Scenarios
1.1 Corey v. James
James wins
1.2 Corey v. Nicole
Nicole wins
1.3 Corey v. Paul
Paul wins
1.4 James v. Nicole
Nicole wins
1.5 James v. Paul
Paul wins
1.6 Paul v. Nicole
Paul wins
If Corey makes it to the final 2, he has a 0% chance of winning
If James makes it to the final 2, he has a 33% chance of winning
If Nicole makes it to the final 2, she has a 67% chance of winning
If Paul makes it to the final 2, he has a 100% chance of winning
So, the Winner Power Ranking in my eyes currently are:
