Since Semi Final 1 of Eurovision is tomorrow (!!!!), I have decided to make a prediction on what I think will happen tomorrow! Literally the strongest Eurovision semi that I can think of. This semi is so wide open with so many different variables and sounds going on, I literally have no idea what will happen. I've been avoiding thinking about qualifiers because I know I'm going to be hurt, but the caliber is so high is must be done. Also, please remember, this is my prediction, not my personal preferences :)
1. Albania 馃嚘馃嚤
Sekret by Ronela Hajati
Chance of qualifying - 70%
I still think this is a fairly safe qualifier, but do think it has the chance of flopping after the rehearsal footage dropped. Still think the song and Ronela in general should be enough to carry this through though.
2. Latvia 馃嚤馃嚮
Eat Your Salad Citi Z膿ni
Chance of qualifying - 50%
This 50% is definitely a cop out, but I really could see this going either way. I feel like it does get harmed with the running order, but the song is still insanely memorable and I think this could do decent enough with the juries due to their charisma. We shall see.
3. Lithuania 馃嚤馃嚬
Sentimentai by Monika Liu
Chance of qualifying - 55%
So scared for this legend. This SHOULD be qualifying due to how high quality the song is. But I just worry that the public won't get around it and the jury support won't be enough to push it through. Feel like it'll still be able to squeak through, but am not entirely sure.
4. Switzerland 馃嚚馃嚟
Boys Do Cry by Marius Bear
Chance of qualifying - 50%
Most certainly a borderline qualifier. Yes, the staging is memorable and touching, but I think it gets lost by the end of the show. There are many other greater ballads that'll entice people to vote for them unlike this, which I think will cause it's downfall. Could still sneak in though.
5. Slovenia 馃嚫馃嚠
Disko by LPS
Chance of qualifying - 40%
I really really wish this had a shot to sneak in, but I fear the song just isn't strong enough. It is enticing and could rack up more points than we think, but I don't see it making it out of a semi this competitive.
6. Ukraine 馃嚭馃嚘
Stefania by Kalush Orchestra
Chance of qualifying - 100%
Sailing through, no doubt. Potential winner of the semi and the show. Nothing else to add.
7. Bulgaria 馃嚙馃嚞
Intention by Intelligent Music Project
Chance of qualifying - 5%
Follows the most gripping song of the night while simultaneously having no melody and no appeal whatsoever. One of the few entries dead on arrival.
8. Netherlands 馃嚦馃嚤
De diepte by S10
Chance of qualifying - 80%
This is a pretty safe qualifier in my opinion. Wish they did more with the staging that would make this a sure fire qualifier, but I don't really see a world where a song of this high caliber misses out.
9. Moldova 馃嚥馃嚛
Trenule葲ul by Zdob 葯i Zdub and Advahov Brothers
Chance of qualifying - 50%
Putting this one in the exact same realm as Latvia. I think we're getting one and not the other, and for now, I'm predicting Latvia over Moldova. While this will prove something unique and exciting, I don't think people will gravitate to it as much as the other upbeat entries, causing it to borderline miss.
10. Portugal 馃嚨馃嚬
Saudade, saudade by MARO
Chance of qualifying - 70%
I think this should be a solid qualifier. This song is just a breath of fresh air amongst this entire lineup and stands out as a unique piece of art. I think the juries are going to eat it up and the televote should prove a nice amount to help this succeed.
11. Croatia 馃嚟馃嚪
Guilty Pleasure by Mia Dim拧i膰
Chance of qualifying - 15%
I feel bad putting this so low, but it's just not happening. It's a sweet song but does absolutely nothing to entice voters to vote for it. It's going to get lost too and unfortunately don't see any path for this.
12. Denmark 馃嚛馃嚢
The Show by Reddi
Chance of qualifying - 40%
Also don't see this happening. Reddi are doing everything right, but I just don't think the song is right. Struggle to see people gravitating toward this which is a shame, but we are losing some great songs tomorrow, and I think this is one of them.
13. Austria 馃嚘馃嚬
Halo by LUM!X (feat. Pia Maria)
Chance of qualifying - 60%
I still think that Ms. Maria is going to pull this off. I understand that her vocals aren't where they should be, but she gave a perfectly competent performance tonight and I feel like the televote has to go for this. I can still see this flopping, but I am throwing the positive vibes out there to get Austria to the final.
14. Iceland 馃嚠馃嚫
Me冒 h忙kkandi s贸l by Systur
Chance of qualifying - 40%
I think this suffers the same fate as Denmark, where the song is so good, but just doesn't really entice anyone to vote for it. The sisters are all lovely and I'd love to see them qualify, but it just doesn't stand out enough in this semi unfortunately.
15. Greece 馃嚞馃嚪
Die Together by Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord
Chance of qualifying - 100%
Convinced this is winning the semi. Is a winner contender. Perfection.
16. Norway 馃嚦馃嚧
Give That Wolf a Banana by Subwoolfer
Chance of qualifying - 100%
Unfortunately this will be qualifying. I don't want to see it but it'll be happening.
17. Armenia 馃嚘馃嚥
Snap by Rosa Linn
Chance of qualifying - 65%
I think this should be fine, but I still feel like it could shock non qualify. The song isn't too strong and all the appeal comes from it closing the show and having great staging. Again, I still think this will qualify, but can also see a realm where it doesn't.
I'm increasingly becoming more and more worried for her, especially since she's the first 'slow' song of the night. She is such a legend though the juries better be doing their jobs.
whatever gets pia maria to the final