Noontar's blogBlog

Duel - Does it throw off the balance of the site?

17thJul 3, 2010 by Noontar

Now before you neg me just because this is too long (it will be) or because you LOVE the Duel - let me say this. I quite liked the Duel game itself. My concerns about the Duel are not about the game existing or not. May people enjoy it - and I hope they continue to do so. You should also know that I am not writing this because I just lost a Duel and am bitter or something. I am writing this to raise some concerns related to what I think are unintended consequences of the Duel game. I invite those interested to discuss the issue, and please bear with me on the length of the blog.

There are three things about The Duel that present possible issues.

1. Risk to Reward Ratio
I calculated the average winnings per person in each game type, then calculated how that compares to the buy-in for each game.

Castings - Reward averages 88% of buy-in *
Rookies - Reward averages 92% of buy-in
Survivor - Reward averages 50% of buy-in **
Stars - Reward averages 22% of buy-in
Duel - Reward averages 83% of buy-in

Duel is not TOTALLY out of line here, but keep going.

2. Average Winner's Reward to Buy-in Ratio
Castings - 2.5 times entry *
Rookies - 2. 67 times entry
Survivor - 1 times entry **
Stars - 1.875 times entry
Duel - 4 times entry

As you can see - Duel is well ABOVE any other game on the site here. Keep going.

3. Average length of game (in real time)
Castings - About 6 days
Rookies - 7 days
Survivor - Hard to calculate, but based on the math for other categories - 18 days
Stars - 7-8 days

Duel is tricky. The maximum is 6 days. However, games CAN be rushed and have been finished as quickly as 2-3 hours.

So, let's add these together:
High Reward Ratio + High Winnings + Shortest games = A vacuum that shifts the population of the site in its direction.

Now - what are the consequences. Here are some I have observed, as well as some theories.
1. Other games get abandoned. Today, the largest number of Rookies games that have been around to bet on is 2, with it being 1 for most of the day. Other games are taking longer to fill - even in primetime, and the players that CAN play Duel are not playing there any more. I can't blame them - the Duel fields are too rich for most to ignore. This is going to dilute the pool of talent in other game types, and destroy the betting market around here. Granted - some of this is excitement over a new format - but the rewards will likely keep the tilt quite considerable.
2. Impact to the working or "busy" player.
To some degree, those who do not work or go to school have ALWAYS had an advantage when it comes to putting time into games. That simply comes with the territory. Well, how is the Duel any different, you ask? Well - when a group of players can start AND complete a Duel round during work day, or maybe 2 work days - then you get the equivalent of a person who can now finish as many as 7 or 8 games in a week - more if they play quick "Active" games. Meanwhile - working players are stuck playing other games that take most of a week to finish. When the game can be rushed - then you have one group of players playing on a totally different field than others. Furthermore - keep in mind that in many cases, these working players are the ones buying $T's on the site, helping support it.
3. Poverty effect
With the cost of the game high and a minimum rank required to play - people at that rank now have a new way to shoot through the ranks quickly. The people below that rank, or those still struggling to work their way up will be at a near standstill, while those able to quick-duel will progress exponentially.
4. Abuse of the System
Remember those of you that have complained about the "unstoppable Gifnor" or were of the belief that the Lads were cheating at Survivor? OK, realize for a second that even IF your worst fears and complaints were valid - those groups earned 10K/10 $T a week for their efforts.

Now imagine a similar group of 5 playing Duel in a premade and rushing through games.
Entry Fee - 5 * 25 $T = 125 $T
Total Winnings - $245
Total Profit PER game - $120 (That's profit)

Now, let them play 5 games across a few days - pretty easy to do with a rushed pace - that's $120 per person. If you prefer, say that one person is running with a crew helping him/her out for a quick level-up while they split the lower placings to break even - that's 375 $T for a few days work. That's enough to buy almost anything at auction or in the shops.... almost enough to buy a shop itself, and enough to jump from light green to almost red, or red to black!

So - suggestions. I see some of the following as possible solutions (but hope others will contribute more)
1. Enforce a minimum day length, cut winnings by 25%. This slows down the game and prevents rapid turnaround $T farming.
2. Keep it the same, but drop the winnings by 50-60%.
3. Drop the entry fee AND winnings by a ton, let it be an enrollable quick game.
4. Limit the number of games per day, but enroll by waiting list. Do not allow new sign-up while enrolled in a Duel already.
5. WHATEVER YOU DO - do NOT implement the "boot" button to speed up slow players. This just makes Number 4 up there even more dangerous.
6. Not really related - but I support the removal of Deal or No Deal from the Duel.

Anyway - read this over, and thanks for bearing with me. I look forward to the discussion.

* - I have used the old entry fee of 6 $T for castings so I can get a comparable number
** - Survivor winnings are an average based on an infinite series progression with 50% eviction out to infinity.

Comments

rdesch has a gay crush on u lol

Sent by vexed,Jul 3, 2010

oh.

Sent by Mermaid,Jul 3, 2010

but patrick, i have a gay crush on you.

Sent by rdesch1,Jul 3, 2010

I agree :)

Sent by cuuum,Jul 3, 2010

ryan told me to neg but i plussed +

Sent by MoreBeastThanYou,Jul 3, 2010

I agree with most of this..

Sent by rdesch1,Jul 3, 2010

1. Enforce a minimum day length, cut winnings by 25%. This slows down the game and prevents rapid turnaround $T farming.

YES

Sent by Nakomis,Jul 3, 2010

I soo agree

Sent by mildsalsa,Jul 3, 2010

luvs #1

Sent by SuperPatrick,Jul 3, 2010

great blog. agree 100%

Sent by philliesfan09,Jul 3, 2010

disagree on minimum day length. This was something that randomize had worried about, but this is counteracted by little to no karma being given out.

I do very strongly agree on cutting the winnings though.

However, people are currently being bothered about the tengaged economy being higher in demand than supply (as evidenced by shop prices being able to go up without competition) - so now the supply is being replenished with duel games. So in short term - the market is being equalised so that people can buy auctions and shop items easily enough.

However, it's also creating an upper class as well then.

Nonetheless, randomize, as he always has, will watch the tengaged economy and ensure it stabilises.

Evidenced by his limits on betting and other measures put in place.

Sent by pablito,Jul 3, 2010

I also remember rookies having open betting went down to zero when survivor opened. It reestablished eventually.

I also like the idea of maximum games per day idea. Even something as simple as not allowing a person to enroll in the next two duel games to open (similar to the stars enrollment thing) could possibly satisfy it.

Sent by pablito,Jul 3, 2010

Forcing people to play one game type (in your example, duel) to get a piece of the economy, however, does not really solve that issue.

Sent by Noontar,Jul 3, 2010

The possibility of 5 people abusing The Duel to earn lots of easy money quickly needs to be taken seriously. Just because only 3 of them make a profit does not mean that they can't all try again later and even out the earnings.

Forcing days to take a minimum amount of time should at least make people wait a bit for their earnings.

Being able to boot a player who is slow is a frightening thought. What if that player needs to sleep?

And I wonder if the prizes are too skewed towards the winners. Getting absolutely nothing for 7th place is really sad, and even 4th place only breaks even. Only the rich and famous - and that excludes me - could afford to rush in so madly.

Sent by Philomena,Jul 3, 2010

You have to be one of the smartest people on this site..

Sent by Diva1,Jul 3, 2010

plussed

Sent by Jeff17,Jul 3, 2010

+10

Sent by amylou8251,Jul 3, 2010

So smart, noonie.

Sent by Knagaroo,Jul 3, 2010

I personally feel that rather than changing the Duel length or prizes, Randomize should update castings to go along with it....

Rookies has long days so that you have 24 hours to decide what you want to do and 24 hours for the gameplay, survivor needs to stay the same because of the food/water deal. But, I think that castings could be cus shorter, if everyone that is still alive has done the challenge, DC should come rather than waiting the full 24 hours.

I don't like the idea of not joining multiple duels, because of the fact that it does cost 25 T$ and if someone wants to play that many times then let em, it will make Randomize more money in the long run because it will cost people more, therefore buying more t$....unless of course it is a premade that cheats, but that is a completely different issue that randomize has been working on.

I do however think that the Karma-t$ ratio is a little off....but, I also don't think someone should get that much karma within 2 hours.

The only other concern I have is the prizes for Duel compared to prizes for Rookies. Rookies is a competitive game and I feel like the prize for that should at least be somewhat comperable to the prizes for the Duel.....

That is all :)

Sent by JustMe,Jul 3, 2010

12 hours for castings...not 24, sorry....

Sent by JustMe,Jul 3, 2010

honestly didnt read it all but anything against the duel is fine by me, i'm in a bet drought.

Sent by LostnGreece,Jul 3, 2010

Interesting topics brought up.

But I disagree about removing Deal. Deal is that stroke of luck once in a while that can stop absurd scorers from taking advantage of the game,

Sent by Mixxo,Jul 3, 2010

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Duel - Does it throw off the balance of the site?

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