Instead of doing chances of winning I have decided to do chances at making it to the final two because it is more interesting this way IMO
EDIT - I put Nicole above Meech because I think they're about the same chances BUT people might see Nicole as hated by the jury and want to take her over Michelle
8th - Paulie [8% chance] I gave him 8% because if he can manage to win PoV until the final three than he will make it but it's very unlikely considering almost everyone in the house wants him out
7th - Corey [10% chance] honestly Corey should have a MUCH higher shot at making the final 2 because he hasn't done shit this entire game but thankfully the house wants him out and I don't think he'll go too much farther unless Nicole does something for him
6th - Michelle [25% chance] this is where it gets really hard to predict BUT I feel like Meech will get caught in the crosshairs after Paulie and Corey leave and after Paul/Vic and James/Nat battle it out. I think she is going to make f4 or even f3 but if it goes as I think she'll be there with one of the duos and they'll take her out so they can make finals together.
5th - Nicole [30% chance] I feel the same for Nicole as I do about Meech that she'll make f4 and get taken out by a duo. I think that once Paulie and Corey are gone that Nicole will be dragged along in the game as a vote against either the Vic/Paul or James/Nat until one of those two come out victorious.
4th - James [41% chance] James will soon be seen as a threat to Paul and with the way Paul is playing I think James might end up taking the L here. What I see happening soon is a divided house at final 6 so really James could beat out Paul but for some reason I think James will end up as 5th or 6th unless they can win f6 HoH that is.
3rd - Victor [48% chance] Same as James the battle will play out between the house at F6 and I feel like he could come up short. On the other hand everyone could see him as an easy person to beat in the finals which I feel is very likely especially for Paul but the problem with that is that James and Nat would 100% take each other so he'd have to be in finals with the right people in order for that logic to come in.
2nd - Paul [73% chance] These top two predictions are interchangeable because it all depends on who comes out on top of the battle at F6 because if it's Paul/Vic than that means Paul has a way better shot at making it but if not his chances go way down BUT either way he has a good shot because people will probably want Vic gone before him considering his comps he's won which would mean he's almost guaranteed a F5.
1st - Natalie [75% chance] She's in a VERY similar spot as Paul where she's almost guaranteed F5 because James would probably leave before her and I feel like F5 is where it really comes down to for both Nat and Paul because at that point one of them will most-likely have no shield [James and Vic] but if her or Paul survives F5 than I believe one of them will 100% make the finals I just don't know which one.
Comments
Michelle has a better chance than Nicole imo. +12 though david
Loopspeare I feel like you're joking but I'm gonna go ahead and explain it in case you're note. These percentages aren't supposed to be added up. Each percentage is an independent number out of 100
Example: In the final three, two will move onto the final two. Their odds are 66.6666% each. Multiple that number by THREE people and the result is 200%.
Loopspeare I get what you're saying (I'm not sure if its even accurate, though. I wouldn't know) but like the other guy said its not really supposed to be taken that seriously
