My review and qualifier prediction for Semi-Final 2.
I think the following countries need Jesus:
- Malta
- San Marino
- Croatia
- Lithuania
- Malta has a nice enough ballad but I struggle seeing it go anywhere. Claudia is a good vocalist but there is only so much good vocals can do for you. I think Netherlands, Denmark and Ireland all have stronger songs in the genre and will outperform Malta, effectively booting them out of the semi.
- San Marino is self explanatory. I think ironic votes will save it from last place (Serhat was almost Top 10 in the televote last year), but it won't qualify.
- Croatia is mostly wishful thinking on my part but I still don't see who would actually vote for it? While I think Slovenia might be a surprise qualifier in Semi 1, I think Croatia is just too over the top to actually go anywhere. Juries will hopefully bury this.
- Lithuania is one of the only songs this year that I think is genuinely "bad" (I apologize if you like it). I thought it would grow on me but I actually dislike it more with each listen. If Attention failed for Lithuania in 2014, I don't see how Rain of Revolution will qualify.
I think the four countries with the BEST chances of qualifying are:
- Hungary
- Belarus
- Bulgaria
- Israel
- Hungary is very niche and I don't see it appealing to everyone, but you could have said the same thing about Jamala last year. I think Hungary has a song that stands out especially in the field of Semi-Final 2, and I see it being rewarded for that reason, especially by the juries.
- Belarus have their best entry in years and I think it will qualify if they keep their NF staging. The fact they don't have many other ex-Soviet Nations voting in the semi (besides Ukraine who I think they'll get the maximum 24 points from) is a little concerning, but I don't see anyone disliking this song to the point of actively down voting it, referring to the juries. I do however think this will get a lot of televotes from across the board as well.
- Bulgaria is the most certain qualifier from this semi-final. Kristian has a great voice, and the song is a modern ballad that will get televotes from everywhere. This is going to fill the Russian void and probably win the semi-final.
- Israel is a funny choice to include as a "certain" qualifier, given their track record. If this had any draw besides #18, I wouldn't have it as a certain qualifier. But I think Israel has the best draw to ensure qualification. It's a big party song that closes the semi-final. Although Imri's vocals are shaky, I don't see how this won't qualify, even if it gets 8th or 9th place. That would be like Bojana Stamenov closing the semi-final and missing out on a spot in the the Final. I just don't see it happening.
Tier 2 in terms of likelihood for qualification:
- Serbia
- Romania
- Netherlands
- Estonia
- Serbia could miss out on the Final but I'm leaning toward qualification. I don't think this is another Moje 3. I think In Too Deep is very marketable and will appeal to televoters across Europe. If anything, this will be forgotten about in the Final, but I do see it making it there.
- Romania will likely qualify on their return. The song isn't my cup of tea but I think it'll register among voters unless the yodeling/rap combination really turns viewers away, which I don't think it will. I'm skeptical about its chances with the juries and while I think there are worse songs for the juries to down vote, if juries do kill Romania off, I won't be that surprised.
- I've been going back and forth between Denmark and the Netherlands all day. But I'm taking a stand and saying that the Netherlands will make the Final. Anja and O'G3NE have equally good vocals, and both will be in the jury Top 10 for that reason. The question is, which song will have greater televote appeal? And I think that the Netherlands actually will. The song is a little "old-fashioned" but I think that actually tends to appeal to viewers, while Denmark is very middle of the road. I think Lights and Shadows is the more memorable entry of the two with the stronger ending.
- Estonia could go either way, but I do think they'll make it. A lot of people are saying Verona could win the televote, which might not be far away from the truth if they bring a good stage show and good vocals. The song has a very timeless feel and is instantly catchy. My only worry is that I think juries will punish it the way they punished Poland 2016.
I think the last two qualifiers will be from among the following countries:
- Austria
- FYR Macedonia
- Denmark
- Ireland
- Norway
- Switzerland
- Austria has been growing on me but I don't know whether that's because of how much I've come to like Nathan or not. He is definitely Mr. Congeniality 2017. I think Austria could very well qualify and achieve a Malta 2013-like result, though Tomorrow was in a much weaker semi. The biggest strike against Austria is their draw, but I think this is a dark horse.
- Macedonia is one of my favourites from this year but I worry about their draw and vocals. Jana will need to bring a strong performance which I'm holding out hope for because the song deserves to qualify.
- Denmark is very strong vocally, but I don't know if the song lives up to Anja's vocal capabilities. The more I think about it, the more this sounds like a watered-down version of Malta 2015, and if Amber failed to qualify with a better song in a smaller semi-final, I think Anja could struggle.
- I think Ireland could surprise people. The song screams X-Factor single, and while you've never heard of an X-Factor single topping the charts, I do think these types of songs have mass appeal. I think Ireland will qualify if a lot of the favourites & similar-sounding entries (Denmark & Netherlands) underperform on the night.
- Norway's reputation took a hit after last year, but I think JOWST might qualify. I think people underestimate how well this could place in the jury vote, given the overwhelming support for it from international juries in NMGP. And given the fact that Norway is coming in with a modern radio-friendly song (which is part of the reason why I think juries like it), I see this getting a lot of televote support as well.
- Switzerland has a nice song but I think it fizzles out. I'm not sure whether it makes a lasting impression and coming before Belarus and Bulgaria, I think Apollo will be forgotten.
QUALIFIER PREDICTION:
Serbia
FYR Macedonia
Romania
Netherlands
Hungary
Norway
Belarus
Bulgaria
Estonia
Israel
I'm putting Macedonia through because I'm personally hopeful it'll qualify. Not giving up hope on Austria, Denmark and even Ireland and I think they're the dark horses to watch.
Romania are locks tbh. I reckon Israel aren't out of the woods tbh, Hungary being out also wouldn't shock me either, I think juries will likely go for Denmark over those last two
^^^
Agreed
I don't see Romania missing out, as I genuinely think a lot of people like the song (like me) and others will vote for it for the laughs
I don't really think Israel is 100% either. Even though they're last, I just think the song is an average dance track with nothing special
I could honestly see Estonia flopping again too but they could also do great. They'll either do one or the other
In your predictions I'd switch Norway and Estonia with Denmark and Switzerland?? Idk this semi is too hard to predict for me lol
