#survivor
1st: Lauren (+0) I still think that Lauren is our winner. These two episodes were good for her. She got very good premerge content...while also not forcing content on us. I continue to get Parvati Micronesia vibes from Lauren. If you guys remember...Parvati had a very subdued pre merge in Micronesia. However...when they gave her content it was GOOD CONTENT. I think this is true with Lauren. We saw Laurens raw emotion, we also saw her long term strategy. I also like that the Lesu content ended with David/Kelley taking Laurens side over Wardog. I think that highlights Laurens good position on the tribe.
2nd: Victoria (+0) I think Victoria is a VERY possible winner. I think she got very good content, and these last few episodes were able to showcase her strategy. The reason I am ranking Victoria below Lauren...is I don't believe Victoria got any personal content? I think I'm right? I get quite game bot vibs from her. HOWEVER....I think the move against Aubry truly showcased how much Victoria PLAYED Aubry. Not even about the Victoria/Gavin/Eric trio taking her out...it was all about Victoria playing Aubry. The only thing that makes me nervous about this is I don't think Aubry's time in this game is over. So Victoria's content might just be to set up a further battle between the two. HOWEVER...I really do think Victoria is establishing herself as force in this game.
3rd: Eric (+0) These two episodes were great for Eric. I think we saw him a decent amount. This coupled with his good premiere episode...really makes me think Eric is a threat to win this game edit wise. His last three episodes really picked up airtime. Despite Victoria being credited for the move, I do think there was focus kinda showing Eric/Victoria were running the show. (With Gavin following along) I think Eric is another good canidate.
4th: Julie (+2) Good episodes for her! She finally got content about STRATEGY. Now we have the strategy with personal information. I do think that we are still missing key alliances...but I think merge will be a big episode for how we can expect Julie to fare.
5th: Kelley (+0) IDOL QUEEN YASS SLAY. I was very happy with Kelley's edit last night. It was very positive, and I didn't think there was ANY negative tone to it. I think Kelley found her footing within the Lesu 4...and is clearly the one in charge. HOWEVER...in terms of winning...I really find it unlikely at this point. I think in terms of returnees she has the best shot...however she got ALOT of negative content in the first few episodes...and I don't know if that is good for her. However..since most of the cast still in the game was ghosted by the edit premerge....not many people for her to compete against.
6th: David (+4) I was impressed with his edit in those episodes! We even got some personal content pertaining to his life back home, and how he wants to take more risks. I still think Kelley's edit is more 3 dimensional than his...HOWEVER I think he is an underdog worst rooting for!
7th: Joe (+5) I think this episode was decent for Joe. We saw him trying to find footing in the game. And what he did say to Julia seemed to stick. Instead of her responding "I am gonna lie to him", she in her confessional seemed to be aware and eager to hear what Joe had to say. I still find it hard to believe that he wins...since Jeff gets a big boner off of Joe..so I don't know why his edit would be so quiet if he was our winner. But he is definetly better off than the people below him.
8th: Ron (-4) Dissapointing episode for Ron. Like WTF? Last episode was all about getting him out? And now all of a sudden he wants to keep Joe? Idgi? Also his content was SOOO quiet. Literally nothing. That mixed with his only GOOD content now means almost nothing. (His advantage was circumstantial, and he went back on his wanting to get Joe out sentiment) Very low chance Ron wins.
9th: Wardog (-1) Wardog is in trouble. I think both episodes were bad for him. He comes off way too arrogant and demanding...and it definetly was not critical for the narrative. I think he is the only remaining Lesu that has a ZERO percent chance of winning.
10th: Julia (+4) QUEEN GOT 2 CONFESSIONALS! Yes! I think this is awesome. And it was ACTUAL STRATEGY. Not just "wow our tribe is chilling enjoying all these rewards from challenges". I think her first 4 episodes keeps her out of the running though.
11th: Aurora (+2) Literally has had NO CONTENT. Shown to be a lesbian obsessed with Joe in episode 1, and then got some silly generic confessional episode 2. DEFINETLY NOT WINNING.
12th: Gavin: (-3) People might not like this...but he is NOT winning. This episode was TERRIBLE FOR HIM. He literally got zero content...and was shown to be Erics laptop, and Victorias little dumb brother. Also...Gavin is a MAN. Which means his edit should be better than it is. I HATE THIS...but we have to face it....Survivor editing is SOOO sexist. A women can have a more subdued premerge than a man in this game. Therefore...in my mind Gavin having VERY LITTLE content puts him below Julia/Aurora.
IOE (chance of returning BASED ON EDIT)
1) Aubry: He edit screams UNFININISHED BUSINESS
2) Chris: He also had a confessional last week that made me think he returned
3) Rick: How many confessionals are we going to get about him being able to read a fucking map? LIKE WTF. WASTE OF MY FUCKING TIME.
4) Keith: LMAO. Literally can't stand him. Also he is NOT getting back in.
5) Reem: I love Reem, but her edit does not point to any unfinished business.
#survivor
*I am extremely busy so I wanted to make sure you guys had some good content to read for now. I will get the finale to you as soon as possible. But her is part 1. I tried to make more confessionals than usual just to make yall happy*
Previously on Survivor Luck of the Draw…..Danny and Julissa found themselves having to play damage control after blindsiding Tester and Slothy on the vote prior. Meanwhile….Tester and Slothy began to prepare for their endgame. They realized Natalia might be a good person for them to go to the end with, so they made a deal with Sydney/Natalia to blindside Julissa for once. In the end...Julissa lost her best alliance member Danny...as he became the 13th person voted out of the game.
WELCOME EVERYONE TO FINALE DAY. WE HAVE 5 CONTESTANTS LEFT, HOWEVER ONLY ONE WILL REIGN VICTORIOUS.
When the tribe returns from tribal….Julissa is clearly discouraged. She asks Slothy and Tester why they did what they did. Tester explained that this whole season Julissa had been throwing them for loops switching back and forwarth. Tester said now was the time for us to make our move. Julissa said she understood...but what disappointed. Before this conversation ended we got a confessional from Tester and Julissa.
Tester Confessional: “Oh gosh...that move went even better than I could have predicted. Julissa has been CONTROLLING this whole game...and it is time for her to go. I just hope she doesn’t win immunity or something like that”
Julissa Confessional: “I am super screwed in this game right now. I better hope I win immunity, because I really don’t see how I can come back from this. I think I showed my cards too early in the game...so now It is going to be super hard for me to make my way to the end of the game. I will not give up though, and you can be SURE of that”.
After this the camera panned to Sydney and Natalia talking. They both were super excited about what had happened prior. Sydney said I really think we should be in the clear now. Natalia responded yah I think Julissa is the easy target rn. The two then broke up...however we were given both a Natalia and Sydney confessional.
Sydney: “Thank god this vote went good. I have my idol...and I will play it on MYSELF no matter what happens at this vote. I need to make sure that I keep this on the downlow. I am a big threat….so I need to be careful rn. If anyone tries to pull a fast one...I wanna make sure I am prepared to catch them off guard.”
Natalia: “Now with Danny out of the game...it is imperative that we take out Julissa at this tribal council. I really don’t want to have to put Sydney’s name down at this tribal...but I came here to win. I need to distinguish my game from hers. Right now we are lumped together. She also has an idol play and other things in her corner...so I need to make sure I get her out if I want any shot of winning”.
After this conversation Natalia/Slothy/Tester met up quickly to discuss what there plans were. Natalia told them that she agreed that if any combo of them with Sydney or Julissa in the end….Syd or Julissa win. The others say they agree. Slothy then stated that they had to ensure that no idol was played or anything. Tester added that they just need to be calm...and try not to look suspicious. As this was happening...we got a confessional from each of them.
Natalia: “So I just met with the guys. They are on the same page as me. Our F3 will hopefully be able to pull through all together”
Slothy: “I really like the group I have assembled. I think this is great for our games...and we are screwed against either of them in the end”
Tester: “I am really trying to make sure that we are careful about being seen together. I DON’T want an idol to be played.”
Right before the challenge…..we were left with a Sydney confessional: “I don’t know what to think rn….I just saw Natalia talking with the guys. That might not be good for my game. I think she would pick them over me. THUS I need to make sure that I keep my ears and eyes open..while thinking with my head.
IMMUNITY CHALLENGE: SYDNEY WINS IMMUNITY
“So I don’t know what to do now. I need to really think about my idol...think about what I want to accomplish in the next two votes”.
When the tribe returns from the challenge...the first thing we get is a Sydney confessional.
Sydney: “So now that I have the idol and the immunity necklace...I don’t need them both. I also am not going to put either to waste. So I need to make sure that I know what is going on...so that I can play it the most effectively.
As this was happening...we got a Julissa confessional
Julissa: “I didn’t win and GOD did I really need to. I might try to get the guys to vote out Natalia..but I don’t think they will be all for that plan.”
*Julissa approaches Tester/Slothy*
Julissa asks them if they might be open to voting for Natalia. The two state that they are still thinking about the best plan for them...but that they will consider it and get back to her. As this is happening...we get another confessional from Julissa and Tester
Julissa: “So I just spoke to Tester and Slothy...I don’t know what to think about it. I still think I might be the one eliminated...so I need to do whatever it takes.”
Tester: “It is critical that myself and Slothy not make it too obvious what our true intentions are in this game. Right now I truly think that Julissa has gots to go”.
After this conversation we saw the four of Sydney/Natalia/Slothy/Tester meet up. They all suggested that Julissa was the obvious target. Natalia agreed this made the most sense, and then the four of them could just fight it out from the F3 on. The 4 then promised to stick together...and then broke up.
We were then left with a Sydney confessional: “I really need to make sure that this is the right plan for myself. I am afraid that I am the fourth wheel, so I might need to approach Julissa and see what she is thinking.”
Natalia then got another confessional: “Right now I need to make sure that Sydney feels secure with me...I can’t have her trying to screw up my plans or anything. I need to approach Tester and Slothy one more time to confirm our plan”
*Natalia/Slothy/Tester talking in the distance*
*Sydney clearly sees them talking*
Sydney confessional: “Alright I think they are playing me. I know what needs to be done.”
*Sydney approaches Julissa*
Hey girl Sydney says...she then continues to explain you and I are on the outs. The other three have a F3 alliance and it is pretty clear. Julissa then responds really? Sydney says look for yourself. The other three are off in the distance clearly visible. Julissa says I agree but what can we do about it. Sydney says I have protection for you..but all you need to do is vote with me. Julissa agree’s and Sydney continues to explain I really think you and me should stick together. The other three will noooott play with us...so we need to stay close together. The two hug quickly….break up and then we are left with one last confessional from each of them.
Julissa: “I really think that Sydney is telling the truth right now. I just need to trust her...and hope that this works out in the end.”
Sydney: “So I am hope I am making the right decision. I really do think Natalia has no intention of going to the end with me...so I need to look out for myself. Julissa and me have something in common….we are both not wanted by the other three. So I am excited to make a move with her!!”
TRIBAL COUNCIL:
IF ANYONE HAS AN IDOL AND WOULD LIKE TO PLAY IT…..NOW IS THE TIME TO DO SO
*SYDNEY STANDS*
SHE STATES “LOYALTY IS AN IMPORTANT THING IN THIS GAME. I AM MAKING A STATEMENT TO SOMEONE THAT I HOPE TRUSTS ME NOW….JULISSA I AM PLAYING THIS IDOL FOR YOU”
This IS an immunity idol...any votes for Julissa WILL NOT count.
FIRST VOTE………………….JULISSA (DOES NOT COUNT)
SECOND VOTE……………...JULISSA (DOES NOT COUNT)
THIRD VOTE………………....JULISSA (DOES NOT COUNT)
FOURTH VOTE……………....TESTER
FIFTH VOTE………………….AND THE 14TH PERSON VOTED OUT OF THIS GAME…..TESTER IT IS TIME FOR YOU TO GO.
5: Victoria/Gavin/Eric pledge to fake Aubry into feeling safe in case she has an idol. However...Aubry is onto this….and convinces Wendy to vote with her. The two vote together to break up the threesome.
6: Kelley and Lauren begin to be sketched out by Wardog for playing too hard. They convince David to vote with them...and the three vote for Wardog.
7: Kama finally loses a challenge, and Joe/Aurora find themselves blindsided when Ron screws them.
8: Everyone decides that the person who wins their way back in must be taken out quickly. In the end, everyone votes Chris out.
9: The majority Kama alliance Julie/Julia/Ron/Eric/Gavin pull Wendy and Aurora in to start targeting the manu stragglers. In the end…….Aurora flips with Aubry and they blind side their head master Eric. Aubry/David/Aurora/Kelley/Lauren alliance forms.
10: After knowing there is going to be a tie….Aubry knows she has to play her idol correctly. She figures out they are going to target Lauren again, so she plays her idol for Lauren. Meanwhile...afraid of another idol being played...Lauren/Aubry/Kelley/Aurora/David suspect Wendy least likely to have idol played on.
11: The new majority alliance once again sticks together in the vote. Despite trying to pull over David/Aurora/Aubry...they vote out Julie least suspecting of an idol play.
12: The majority alliance targets Gavin. They try to sway votes...doesn’t work.
13: New majority decides that Laurne/Kelley need to be broken up.
13b: Kelley/David decide to work with Ron/Julia to break up Aubry/Aurora duo.
14: Lauren wins reentry into the game.
14b: Kelley finds idol...play its for Lauren knowing the others want Lauren out after winning reentry. Use to blindside Julia (explains purple edit)
14c: Aubry/Kelley/Lauren F3 targets Ron
14d: Kelley wins final immunity bringing Lauren...Aubry beats David in fire
14e: Jury respects Lauren making it to the end despite 3 other vets in F4. Also bitter jury that vets controlled game. Aubry gets some praise too for idol play, and for her resilience. Kelley is trashed lol.
I WILL DO TWO SEPARATE LISTS: ONE OF THE PLAYERS IN THE GAME...THE OTHER WITH
PLAYERS NOT IN THE GAME CURRENTLY.
1st: Lauren: People have been underselling her chances of winning. I seriously think her edit is actually quite decent. Also...most often female winners don't have breakout episodes until the latter part of the season. I think her correctly not playing the idol this last vote shows that her intuition in the game is correct. Thus I think the content we have gotten is consistent with a female winner's edit. Also despite her ties to Kelley, the editors tried really hard to show that Lauren had no intentions of telling Kelley about the idol. This independence is good for her I think.
2nd: Victoria: I get really similar Michele 32 vibes. We have seen her a good amount despite NEVER attending tribal to this point. I think that bodes well for her. People have complained about her content being negative...but I really don't think it is that negative. She legit talked to Ron about getting Joe out WHILE JOE WAS STANDING THERE....And in this last episode Joe approached Ron to work with him and Aurora. Dilutional much Joe? Thus this kinda assures that Victoria got around this situation alright. Victoria's content I think is decent all in all...and I think she has a good chance of making it far.
3rd: Eric: I do not see how Eric is some "standout" winner. He has gotten really little content....despite being a white alpha male...yah okay that happens a lot in Survivor. However, I still think his content is better than the rest of Kama. Also...he had a really good first episode.
4th: Ron: I think Rons content episode one was good...but circumstantial due to him finding the advantage. HOWEVER...episode 4 was good for him! Despite not attending tribal he got really good content. I think he is playing Joe like a fiddle...AND that is good for him.
5th: Kelley: People can say what they want about Kelley... it's not as negative as it could be. HOWEVER...I do agree it hurts her chances that she is the number one player right now. Despite being a returnee...usually, the winner isn't so in your face. Also, I truly don't think a returning player is winning.
6th: Julie: She has gotten okay content...thought I really doubt she will win. Could she make FTC? Definitely. But she has gotten ZERO game content I believe. I really think its more about the experience she is on. Like whats, the first days were like in the elements, the nerves during the tribe swap. She is a character...just not a gamer. Probably the journey edit. But who knows...this season is clearly going to end uniquely. Maybe the journey edit is the one that will win in the end.
7th: Aubry: I LOVE Aubry. HOWEVER...I really find it hard to believe that she is winning after episode 2 for her. IT WAS TERRIBLE FOR HER. She legit seemed so ingenuine and I think that hurts her chances. Despite having a good ep 3,4 I still see her as being more of an underdog that falls short. HOWEVER...her edit does warrant her more of a win than players who are completely invisible.
8th: Wardog: Okay this might be low for Wardog...but he seems too gamey. This season seems to be more of an emotional rollarcoaster...and I think the winner will have episodes of emotion also. All we have seen from Wardog is strategy really. ALSO...he has sided with Kelley/Lauren multiple times...and despite that, we have seen no "alliance" seen between the THREE of them. Just Kelley/Lauren. Thus I find it hard to believe that he does better than either of them. Thus I don't think Wardog will make it into the endgame. I see perjury game bot.
9th: Gavin: I think Gavin had a good premiere episode but UTR, INV, UTR for episodes 2,3,4...nope you are out of the running. I get it that he didn't attend tribal...but we would have at least seen an additional alliance building comment or something about the swap from the winner. So I doubt he wins. Though I feel he will play a role down the road.
10th: David: I thought David had good episodes 2,3...HOWEVER I really think this episode was the nail in his coffin. Like why would he NOT target Kelley? At this point the edit almost is showing him as someone who is too wishy washy. Thus despite the content he has recieved...its literally ALL been Kelley centric. Thus I see her getting him out first.
11th: Wendy: Too OTT. At first it was negative. But now it is becomming negative. Like her keeping people from eating...thats just cruel. She seems like a prejury personality....but I don't see her being anything but the CP4 prejury queen.
12th: Joe: God this episode was TERRIBLE for him. Also...Jeff is obsessed with Joe. So why would he have two UTR's in a row.. (2,3) So I really don't think Joe will go far. I also think he was so stupid in thinking Ron would flip with him. Honestly stupid lol
13th: Aurora: Her edit is legit Joe centric. Its kinda sad...I follow her on instagram. She seems like a badass. But all we see is her pretending to be Joes dog in this last episdoe...THATS BAD FOR HER.
14th: Julia: ZERO confessionals. Like wtf? I seriously feel bad for her. Imagine being on survivor is your dream..but when you get on this happens....okay. Also its soo annoying. A female needs to portray an archetype...whereas all a man needs is a penis to have good content. Like what is Ricks archetype????? He's not even interesting. Literally pisses me off. Even Mike White last season. Literally the most boring person I have ever watched on the tv....wtf what archetype does he portray?????? Its so annoying
EOE:
1st: Rick: EWW...But edit way too good. He could be the winner
2nd: Chris: Really good personal story this last episode
3rd: Keith and Reem: Neither is getting back in....but they will repesent EOE
