I have read no spoilers for Survivor (so please don't post any); this is pure speculation based on editing. Here is my edgic chart so far, after 4 episodes:
Alina - If Alina was going to go soon, then she'd probably be nearly invisible, since she hasn't done anything that interesting yet. The tribe switch will save her, and she'll almost surely make the merge. (#3 winner candidate)
Brenda - There's really no good reason why Brenda wouldn't make a great winner. They showed her alliance with Chase in the first episode, then she was painted as a big threat in Episode 2. I think that Brenda, Chase, and NaOnka will all be important characters in this season, and Brenda has the best edit of the 3 of them. (#1 winner candidate)
Benry - Benry is way too invisible. I don't think he can make F3... maybe he'll get far like Brett, or he could just be an unremarkable pre-merge boot.
Chase - I had Chase as my #1 winner candidate for the first two episodes, but then I marked him as invisible in Episode 3, which is really bad for him, especially since he had made a very important play in Episode 2. Also, Brenda described him as "a good guy, but clueless" in the first episode, and that doesn't help his case, either. I think he'll make it far, but he won't win.
Dan - Dan has repeatedly been described as useless, and there's been nothing on the show that contradicts that. He'll probably be voted out pre-merge.
Holly - Holly looked good after the first episode, but then she had her meltdown in Episode 2 and then she stopped being important altogether. She's not going to win.
Jane - Making fire in the first episode was great, but she doesn't have much depth to her edit, and I marked her as invisible in Episode 2. I doubt that she will win.
Jill - She's looking like a good analytical player; she's coming off as more logical than Marty. I like how the editors made sure to note that it was her idea to show Marty's idol to the tribe. She could have gotten shunned in the editing as "Marty's sidekick," but she's not. (#2 winner candidate)
Jud - He had a decent edit until Episode 4, where he was unquestionably invisible. I have a hunch that he'll make it far, though.
Kelly B. - Her story could go in a few different directions. She might just be the victim of NaOnka's bullying, but she was marked as a jury threat in the first episode. To me, that either means that she wins, or she is voted off at some point BECAUSE she's a jury threat. (maybe like right at the F4 or something) (#4 winner candidate)
Kelly S. - I think she'll be one of the next couple vote-offs. She's allied with what I think are the most important characters, (Brenda/Chase/NaOnka) yet she's not shown doing ANYTHING. She'll probably get screwed in the tribal swap.
Marty - Marty's a distraction. He could lose to Jill in the F3, but more likely he'll get destroyed in an epic blindside. Alina prophesied in Episode 1 that his leadership will get him "voted off right away;" she's probably at least somewhat right.
NaOnka - She's the star villain of the season like Coach and Russell have been for the last couple seasons. I think she'll make it very far, but she's way too negative to win.
Sash - Like Kelly Purple, he's allied with the right people, but his edit sucks. I think he'll get screwed in the tribal switch, too.
Tyrone - Tyrone is in a limbo category for me right now. He's way below my Top 4, but way above everyone else. I'll have to see what happens with him.
Yve - She's probably a pre-merge boot. I suspect that she's aligned tightly with Marty/Jill, but that hasn't been shown. Wendy even voted for her in the first episode and they never even showed why.
